SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – Founder and Chairman of CREATV Media shared his annual “Prime 10 Predictions” for the tech-driven world of media and leisure for the New 12 months.
“2020 begins a brand new decade that pushes media and leisure boundaries and prospects considerably additional. And, wanting again at all of it, a lot of it would appear so very apparent – prefer it does now as we glance again on the lengthy and winding street that led us to the place we’re immediately.” stated Peter Csathy.
Prediction #1 – “The Nice Streaming Wars” and world subscription video on demand (SVOD) land seize are lastly totally “on” after years of anticipation. Disney+ exceeds expectations, Apple TV+ underperforms, and Netflix faces new headwinds because it plows ahead with its Herculean content material finances that ballooned to $15+ Billion in 2019 (and its rising debt load to assist it).
In the meantime, AT&T’s “all in” HBO Max guess, NBCUniversal’s Peacock and Jeffrey Katzenberg’s mobile-first Quibi discover it laborious to take off in those self same headwinds attributable to client confusion and “subscription fatigue.” Promoting video on demand providers (AVODs) like Viacom’s PlutoTV – an anticipated antidote to that SVOD fatigue – are additionally misplaced amidst the noise. Relentless SVOD pricing and unique content material battles proceed unabated on this new “golden age” of flicks and tv wherein the road between the 2 more and more blurs (and the place the phenomenon of “Peak TV” is nowhere but to be discovered). Aside from shoppers, Hollywood inventive expertise is the good beneficiary of the sheer quantity of huge budgeted tales being informed.
As we speak In: Innovation
Prediction #2 – As cords proceed to chop amidst these SVOD wars (or by no means join within the first place), advertisers scramble for brand spanking new methods to achieve and successfully interact with audiences on and off TV screens. They act with new urgency to create impactful content material and optimize focusing on and personalization. Out of necessity (but in addition actual alternative), entrepreneurs more and more experiment and switch to eSports, immersive and dwell experiential promoting.
Misplaced amidst all of the “streaming wars” hoopla is the fundamental undeniable fact that subscription providers, for probably the most half, jettison promoting as a key a part of their total worth proposition. That’s the problem. However the alternative for manufacturers is to have interaction extra deeply and impactfully with particular coveted audiences. By means of all of it, conventional ad-supported tv broadcasters’ long-term prospects proceed to dim, however their short-term backside traces are buoyed by SVOD giants that spend billions of dollars to interrupt out (to not point out political candidates who guess all of it throughout this upcoming pivotal election yr). Advertising expenditures skyrocket consequently in 2020.
Prediction#three – Mega media-tech M&A involves a crawl (for now) within the wake of Viacom’s acquisition of CBS. 2020 marks the primary yr of relaxation after the previous a number of years of frenetic dealmaking. Now, nearly all main “conventional” media firms have discovered their dance companions.
That doesn’t imply that media and leisure M&A is gone eternally. Behemoth tech born media firms will in the end goal Netflix, Spotify and others to function strategically essential items of their a lot bigger machines. Amazon, Apple, Google, Fb, and Verizon are prime suspects right here. And, don’t overlook huge worldwide media-tech gamers like Alibaba and TenCent. We dwell in a borderless media and leisure world now.
Prediction #four – As soon as maligned streaming once more drives double-digit development for the music trade. Spotify continues its management dominance and drives a lot of that development, however provides higher losses that in the end turn out to be unsustainable and make it ripe for acquisition.
In the meantime, China-born social video music big TikTok, which grew to become a U.S. teen darling in 2019, deepens its fan engagement and monetization mannequin and targets Spotify with its personal subscription streaming service that launches in 2020. China’s Tencent Music, which additionally efficiently drives and monetizes direct artist-fan engagement, factors the best way to others and underscores the worldwide nature of media and leisure (and gamers in it).
Podcasting’s client enchantment and strategic significance to Spotify, Apple and others develop, however monetization at mass scale stays elusive.
Prediction #5 – 2020 lastly offers imaginative and prescient to augmented actuality (AR) and its final mass business enchantment. Similar to the iPhone ushered within the age of sensible telephones at mass scale, Apple’s long-anticipated AR glasses usher in a courageous new world of visible computing (and in the end turn out to be Apple’s elusive “subsequent huge factor”).
Assume the movie Minority Report and this offers you an concept of this game-changing paradigm shift and evolution of the display screen to wearables. Semi-immersed trade eyes additionally intently observe AR’s authentic poster baby Magic Leap because it struggles to dwell as much as its hype and closes one other huge spherical of financing, which takes its whole haul to over $three billion. In the meantime, fully-immersive digital actuality (VR) continues to underperform commercially. However that doesn’t imply that VR’s long-term promise gained’t in the end be realized. The approaching onslaught of 5G wi-fi networks hastens the expansion of prolonged actuality (XR) in all its types. Talking of 5G …
Prediction #6 – 5G networks launch in earnest and 5G suitable sensible telephones (together with Apple’s subsequent iPhone) enter the market. 5G drives top quality video consumption on these telephones (a boon for Quibi), begins to rework our media and leisure experiences (together with cloud-based video games and eSports), and accelerates the push towards visible computing.
5G networks are essential for knowledge intensive leisure experiences that demand low latency. 5G additionally reduces the dimensions of client AR and VR “glasses,” since computation and knowledge movement now happen within the cloud and on edge networks relatively than within the itself.
Prediction #7 – Warnings develop about an eSports bubble, however sensible cash performs the lengthy e-game as 5G fueled cross-platform and cloud-based cell gaming speed up. Early innovators like Google Stadia and Apple Arcade subscription gaming platforms cleared the path.
Given the passionate coveted younger demographic at play, manufacturers more and more embrace video games and eSports, which collectively dwarf the worldwide movement image trade. Scopely, now valued at $1.7 billion, is one to look at. Look out for the YouTube-ization of video games as properly, as firms like Koji give everybody (together with manufacturers) a platform to simply create, share and monetize video games (to not point out use video games to deepen client engagement). No engineering required.
Prediction #eight – Synthetic Intelligence (AI) accelerates its game-changing methods on the planet of media and leisure. Look past residence assistants like Alexa and Siri which have already reworked our lives, and say “hiya” to digital people and digital beings.
Actual emotional connections with non-human AI-driven characters turn out to be a paradigm shift that’s nearer than we predict and more and more attracts enterprise capital. Have a look at digital influencer Miquela with “her” very actual 1.eight million social followers as a mannequin right here, in addition to Fable’s Lucy Undertaking. AI additionally more and more drives cost-effective and environment friendly content material improvement and manufacturing. Synthesia is one startup price watching. Digital dwell occasions additionally proliferate, impressed by the success of DJ Marshmello’s Fortnite experiment and musician Lindsey Stirling’s Wave XR digital live performance.
Prediction #9 – Actual, not digital, dwell “experiences” additionally more and more discover their manner into multi-platform media methods, pushed by a rising counter-movement to digital’s incessantly heads down isolation. Stay experiences, and their extra lasting “soul” (to not point out selfie-worthy moments) deepen model engagement and monetization. Additionally they drive ever grander “offline” experiments and M&A.
Consider Madison Sq. Backyard’s audacious Sphere challenge right here, a $1.2 billion challenge that goals to reinvent the venue expertise. The primary MSG Sphere is rising up from the desert flooring in Las Vegas proper now to blow minds. At smaller scale, however equal mind-blowing affect, Woolf & The Wondershow’s Cages music expertise in downtown Los Angeles’s Arts District demonstrates how know-how can broaden and improve the probabilities with out overpowering the underlying story. It’s a “should.”
Prediction #10 – “Faux information” (together with AI-driven “deepfakes”) overrun 2020’s U.S. elections and trigger unprecedented societal disruption. The White Home hangs its hat on disinformation campaigns actively promoted by main media and social media gamers, and claims victory it doesn’t matter what the precise consequence.
The nation is split and threatened like by no means earlier than in generations. Hacking headlines add to an rising sense of mass insecurity. However within the face of daunting forces, optimism survives and social activism rises up. 2020’s concern transitions to 2021’s courageous new redemptive prospects.